DOGE (DOGE) price prediction: big dump end or bear trap? Analysts reveal that the new ETH high and Russell 2000 breakout are the real signals.

Renowned crypto analyst VisionPulsed presented a disruptive viewpoint in a video analysis on August 20: the 175-day sideways consolidation of DOGE is not a precursor to a bull run, unless two key indicators simultaneously break through—Ethereum reaches a new all-time high and the Russell 2000 index surpasses its previous high. This article deeply analyzes why the current cycle diverges from traditional understanding, reveals the real conditions for the altcoin season to kick off, and outlines how DOGE investors should strategize during the critical window period of the next three months.

[Market Status: The Long and Short Game Behind 175 Days of Sideways Trading]

VisionPulsed indicates through on-chain data and historical pattern comparison:

• Since October 2023, although DOGE has reached higher lows, the price has effectively stagnated for nearly 7 months.
• The current sideways duration has reached 175 days, surpassing the 400-day sideways record of 2020.
• Trading volume continues to shrink, and Google Trends search popularity has plummeted to freezing point.

This seemingly "accumulation phase" trend is actually a period of confusion before the market direction is chosen. Analysts particularly emphasize: the ironic opening of "daily bearish because always bearish" is actually meant to dispel the fog of "bull run propaganda."

【Cycle Anomaly: Traditional Altcoin Season Trigger Mechanism Fails】

VisionPulsed has discovered significant anomalies in the current cycle:

1. Halving effect failure:
   1. Historical Pattern: DOGE usually surges 240-260 days after halving.
   2. Current Reality: It has been nearly 500 days since the last halving with no movement.
2. Bitcoin Leading Indicator Failure:
   1. Historical Pattern: Bitcoin breaks previous high followed by DOGE reaching new high
   2. Current Situation: After Bitcoin broke through the historical high of $124,000, DOGE showed no response.

This divergence indicates that traditional analytical models are no longer applicable, and new market indicators need to be sought.

【Key Indicators: The Significance of ETH Breaking Through the Russell 2000】

Analysts propose two new benchmarks:

1. Ethereum breaks historical high (4,891 USD)
   1. Represents the prosperity of the smart contract ecosystem
   2. Reflect the activity level of the DeFi and NFT markets
2. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index breaks above the previous high (2,210 points)
   1. Measure market risk appetite
   2. The performance of small-cap stocks has a correlation of 0.87 with alts.

VisionPulsed emphasizes: "Only when Russell breaks the previous high and Ether breaks the previous high will I start to get excited. Until then, we have not reached altcoin season."

[Power Struggle: The Truth About Capital Flows]

Through the dominance chart analysis, it was found that:

• When the Russell 2000 previously attempted to break through, Bitcoin's dominance fell synchronously.
• This pattern usually indicates the beginning of alts rotation.
• But if the breakthrough fails, the dominance will return to Bitcoin.

Analysts warn: "Everyone thinks it's altcoin season, but what if the RSI drops and dominance rises? It's very possible."

[Data Verification: The Harsh Reality of Market Heat]

VisionPulsed supports the market's quietness with multiple data.

• The view count of the Crypto Assets video has fallen below 2,000.
• Google Trends search volume has dropped to a cyclical low.
• Social media engagement decreased by 65%

This lack of retail enthusiasm is more likely a sign that the cycle transition is not yet complete, rather than a buildup for a breakout.

[Historical Comparison: Insights from the Explosion After 400 Days of Sideways Movement]

Review of the 2020 cycle:

• DOGE has experienced 400 days of Sideways.
• Increased by 12,000% in the following 90 days
• The key breakout indicator is the small-cap index breaking through +ETH strength.

Currently, if the 175-day Sideways trend follows historical patterns, it may be in the accumulation phase, requiring more patience.

[Investment Strategy: Three Key Observation Indicators]

(Source: TradingView)

Investors should focus on:

1. Ethereum price trend: Can it break through the mid-term resistance of $3,500
2. Russell 2000 Index: Is it holding the 2,100 point support level?
3. Bitcoin Dominance: Will it fall below the 50% key watershed?

【Conclusion】

The analysis by VisionPulsed reveals important features of the evolution of the Crypto Assets market cycle: traditional triggering mechanisms are becoming ineffective, and macroeconomic indicators and cross-market correlations are becoming new beacons. For DOGE investors, blindly believing in the "halving effect" or "Bitcoin leading" may lead to fatal mistakes. It is advisable to closely watch for breakout signals from ETH and the Russell 2000, and to remain cautiously optimistic rather than overly excited until these two indicators are confirmed. The next 90 days will be a key window for judging whether this cycle can truly initiate an altcoin season, and investors should be prepared for position management and risk control.