#Bitcoin Pizza Day#  Bitcoin supply shortage points to $200,000 target by 2025.

Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin's BTCUSD will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to a supply shock from increasing institutional demand.
In an interview at the Consensus 2025 event in Toronto, the manager said that his Bitcoin price prediction model is based solely on supply and demand data. Hougan explained the hard numbers driving the forecast:
"We know that miners will produce 165,000 BTC this year. Public companies have already bought more than that. There has been $6 billion inflows into ETFs. We think governments will buy as well. We see a structural difference between demand and supply."
"I think this will finally exhaust the selling pressure that we've been stuck at $100,000 and the next stop will be $200,000," the manager said.
This institutional demand has provided liquidity to the market, Hougan said, making the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, which can see major drops of up to 90% between cycles, “a relic of the past.”
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Michael Saylor’s company is single-handedly transforming the markets
One of the institutional players driving Bitcoin demand is Strategy. The company is pioneering the BTC reserve strategy and currently holds 568,840 BTC in its treasury, according to SaylorTracker data.
Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston recently said that Strategy has “synthetically halved Bitcoin,” meaning it is outpacing the newly mined supply.
Livingston also noted that Strategy has accumulated 379,800 BTC in the last six months, and if it continues at this pace, it could dominate the Bitcoin lending markets.
“BTC’s global cost of capital will no longer be determined by the ‘market.’ It will be determined by the gravitational policies of the first Bitcoin superpower: Strategy,” Livingston wrote.
The Strategy’s impact on Bitcoin supply is so significant that market analyst Ki Young Ju now says Bitcoin supply is deflationary, with an annual deflation rate of minus 2.33 percent.
The increased demand has led some analysts to predict that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in the next decade.
However, analyst and investor Arthur Hayes recently predicted that BTC could reach $1 million in three years. Hayes argued that the worsening macroeconomic environment and liquidity provided by central banks will continue to push prices higher.