Bitcoin: September Brings Many Challenges, But Q4 Promises to Explode

Josh Olszewicz, a cryptocurrency analyst, believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will have to go through a period of "grinding and probability" in the next six weeks, before the market has a chance to improve significantly in Q4. In a video released on August 18, he emphasized that the seasonal nature of September, weakening momentum signals, and mixed developments in ETF capital flows are calling for patience rather than leverage. "In summary, in the short term, the market is likely to move sideways or be somewhat negative, but in Q4, the outlook still leans towards growth," Olszewicz shared. ETF Capital Flow and September Seasonality: Factors Deciding the Rhythm According to Olszewicz, the short-term roadmap of Bitcoin revolves around two key factors: ETF capital flow and the September season. He hopes that the market will "only move sideways, nothing significant, ETF flows will be calm in the coming weeks, and even worse in the next 4 weeks" to reset the baseline and prepare for a breakout in Q4. Last week, Bitcoin ETF inflows reached about 550 million USD, a figure considered good in the current context, but still much lower than previous boom periods. The buying flow from corporate treasury has also slowed down, reflecting the ongoing selling pressure. The consequence is not a clear bearish signal (bearish), but rather "time, not price": either there will be a strong adjustment in the coins that have risen sharply, or the market will "stay still" for about 6 weeks. Bitcoin Chart: Clear Boundaries On the chart, Olszewicz presents important technical milestones: $121,000 – $122,000: "This is an imaginary boundary. If BTC closes the day above this range, I am willing to lean towards a bullish trend." He believes that above $120,000, the target of $150,000 will be quite "easy." Important support zone: 20-week MA ( 20-week moving average ) at $104,000. If it closes below this range, especially in October, it will be a much more concerning signal. Cloud Ichimoku: If BTC closes within the cloud ( daily cloud ) or has a bearish TK cross, that is a warning sign for a correction scenario. Olszewicz emphasized the conditionality in the system: "If this then that, not just one scenario." Macroeconomic Factors and Short-term Risks In the short term, the Jackson Hole Conference – where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks – is seen as the most significant catalyst. A tough message ( to keep interest rates high, waiting for more data ) could put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, Olszewicz mentioned the political factor: "Trump may announce a replacement for Powell right before Powell speaks... to capture media attention." While not the base scenario, it is still a news risk to be aware of. In the long term, he is more optimistic due to the context of rising global money supply and public debt – which is a supporting factor for scarce assets like Bitcoin. Q4: The Bright Door Remains Wide Open August is generally still positive, but history shows that six consecutive months of increase is a rare occurrence. Therefore, September may pose difficulties for traders. With Ethereum, despite having a record ETF-flow week, Olszewicz believes that ETH's technical position is currently "bad for long positions," and if ETH does not take the lead, the overall market's uptrend will also be hard to maintain. However, for long-term investors, he recommends not to be too volatile: The power-law corridor shows that if there is a 30–50% probability of Bitcoin entering a parabolic phase exceeding the long-term moving average, then it is best to "sit tight and wait for the market to prove itself." Key technical levels to watch: hold above the Ichimoku cloud, protect the $104,000 zone, and most importantly, close the daily candle above $121,000–$122,000. At that point, the $150,000 target is entirely feasible. Conclusion In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within a sideways range or experience a correction, especially since September is statistically not favorable. However, the outlook for Q4 remains positive if BTC maintains key technical levels. The core message from Olszewicz for traders: Be patient, no early leverage. Monitor important technical levels. Be ready for a breakout in Q4 if the market confirms signals. Short term: "nothing at all" – sideway or pullback. Medium term (Q4): Bullish outlook, targeting $150,000 if it breaks $121,000–$122,000.