The risk of deepening pullback after the Ethereum trend line breakdown and the game of Fibonacci support.

Core logic and the pullback after the surge

• Signal of trend reversal: The hourly yellow upward trend line has been broken, support becomes resistance—this is irrefutable evidence that "one cannot blindly go long", and the high and low points are continuously decreasing, indicating that bears have gradually taken control. Those who chased the price at $3800 are now enduring the agony of "enjoying the cool at the peak", and the pullback depth is still insufficient (only a little over $200);

• Short-term impact of Powell's speech: The speech at 8:30 tonight may trigger significant volatility, and we need to be cautious about the emotional aspect amplifying the technical pullback demand, especially since we are currently at a trend reversal point, where news can easily become a catalyst.

Key Level Trading Strategy

• Long conditions:

1. Volume breakout at 3685 USD → right side chase long (short-term only), target 3715 → 3772 USD, stop loss on breakout;

2. Staying above $3715 is a prerequisite; otherwise, "it's of no use at all." It is necessary to break through the yellow trendline resistance with volume to alleviate the weakness.

• Short selling conditions:

1. A volume drop below $3667 → short on the right side, target $3625 → $3579, pullback cannot recover stop loss;

2. 4-hour closing price breaks $3677 → increase short position, target $3628-3579, pullback signal clear;

3. Support at 3625 USD has failed → down to 3476 USD (Fibonacci 1:1 target), under panic conditions may test 3242 USD (1.618 position, lower probability).

Analysis of Patterns and Fibonacci Support

• hourly level:

◦ The 61.8% Fibonacci level (around $3625) is currently holding support, but a rebound needs to stabilize above the 38.2% level (around $3700), otherwise it will retest the 61.8% level again;

◦ After the support and resistance swap, the yellow trend line (current resistance) holds, and any rebounds are regarded as a trap for the bulls.

• Pullback health zone:

◦ 3476 USD is a relatively reasonable pullback level, which can release risk without damaging the medium-term bullish structure; if it goes too deep to 3242 USD, one must be wary of a complete trend reversal.

Discipline in Operations and Lessons from Buying High

• Responding to the trapped investors at the mountain top:

◦ Those who are trapped above 3800 USD should reduce their positions near 3715 USD during the rebound, and decisively stop losses if it falls below 3625 USD to avoid deeper pullbacks and further losses.

• Extreme caution for short longs:

◦ Even if there is a pullback, the principle of "quick in and quick out" should be followed. Do not expect to return to 3800 USD. Under the resistance of the yellow trend line, any rise is an opportunity to reduce positions.

Summary: The Ethereum trend has broken down, and the pullback has not ended. Core operation: Short-term longs should quickly rely on the support at $3625. If it breaks down, decisively follow the shorts. Before Powell's speech, respond with a light position, and remember the lesson of chasing highs—only in the retreat do we know who is swimming naked.