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The strategy for the battle of long and short positions in Bitcoin and the reversal signal of the daily chart trading range.
The core logic and the game of long and short lifelines
• The key significance of $116,055: This level is the current dividing line between bulls and bears — a breakthrough indicates strength and a continuation of the upward trend; if this week fails to break through and falls below the low point of the left yellow arrow's bullish candle, it will face the downward risk of a "bottomless abyss", and the decisive factor in the battle between bulls and bears lies here;
• Constraints of the daily chart trading range: Before recovering within the trading range, there is still a risk of a second pullback at the daily chart level. Only when it returns to oscillate within the trading range will there be an opportunity to challenge the upper boundary of $120030. A stop-loss signal needs to wait for confirmation of the recovery of the trading range.
Key Level Trading Strategy
• Conditions for going long:
1. Volume breakthrough at 114800 US dollars (hourly closing price stabilizes) → right side chasing long, target 115377 → 116030 US dollars, break position stop loss;
2. 114051 USD false breakout recovery → light position try long, false breakout low point or 113036 USD stop loss, if no recovery action then give up;
3. Stabilize at 115377 dollars → increase long positions, aim for 117152 dollars, breaking through 116055 dollars is a prerequisite;
4. For stable type, long position at 112,573 USD, stop loss if it falls below 112,019 USD (deep pullback buying, requires extreme market conditions).
• Shorting conditions:
1. With volume falling below $114,432 → Short on the right side, target $114,049 → $113,094, unable to recover stop loss on the pullback;
2. Light position short at $117,152 (2B false breakout), stop loss at $117,816 (high position short, need confirmation of bullish weakness);
3. 4-hour level falls below $114049 → increase short position, looking down to $112047, if this level is lost, then "whatever goes up must come down", and even lower lows may occur.
The bottom line of the pattern and support defense
• The non-losing level of $114,049:
◦ This is the key support level on the 4-hour chart and also the foundation for short-term increases. A break below this level would damage the upward structure, completely release the risk of a pullback, and long positions should be avoided decisively.
• The necessity of returning to the daily chart trading range:
◦ Only by returning to the trading range can we alleviate the downward pressure and accumulate momentum to challenge $120030; otherwise, any rebound may just be a weak correction.
Summary: Bitcoin is focusing on the defense of the long-short dividing line in the short term. The core operation is: long positions depend on breaking through $114800 and follow up, closely watching the breakthrough at $116055 and support at $114049. Do not be blindly optimistic before recovering the daily chart trading range; if broken, turn decisively.