Bitcoin bearish flag pattern breakdown after a quick rebound validation and double bottom expectation strategy

Identification of the authenticity of core patterns and quick rebounds

• The chain reaction of breaking a bearish flag: After consolidation, it breaks below the bearish flag, and a quick rebound appears at a low of 114000 dollars— the key verification point is whether the rebound can reclaim the area inside the flag:

◦ Recovering confirms a "quick rebound", with a high probability of a short-term halt in the fall;

◦ If it cannot be recovered, it will quickly rebound from a false breakout to a true breakout, and will then test the right yellow box area to form a double bottom ("a single leg cannot hop far"), and we need to be wary of a second test at $112,145.

• Test rule of $112,145: If tested again, observe price behavior—multiple wicks but the closing price does not break this level, a light long position can be taken on the left side; if the closing price breaks below, then remain firmly on the sidelines to avoid getting "necked".

Key Point Trading Strategy

• Conditions for Long Position:

1. Volume breakout at $114,647 → chase more on the right side (take the rebound), target $115,344 → $116,083, stop loss on break.

2. 114000 USD a quick rebound + stabilize → light position try long, stop loss at the low point of the quick rebound, if it doesn't recover then give up;

3. Stand firm at 115344 dollars → increase long positions, looking up at 117152 dollars, need to break through the 4-hour gravestone line resistance.

• Short Selling Conditions:

1. The volume falls below $114,467 → short on the right side, target $114,043 → $113,071, rebound cannot recover stop loss;

2. 4-hour level falls below 114043 dollars → increase short position, look down to 112073 dollars, if it cannot recover, the falling trend continues;

3. Encountering resistance on the rebound 4-hour gravestone line → Lightly shorting, set stop loss at the high point of the gravestone line, exit if the selling pressure area is breached.

The constraint significance of the 4-hour level pattern

• Tombstone line and bearish engulfing suppression:

◦ The upper gravestone line shows strong selling pressure, making it difficult to break through in one go; the bearish engulfing pattern below has not been currently engulfed by the current bullish candle, which means "continuing to pull back is the only option", and the short-term bulls are unlikely to achieve significant results.

Summary: Bitcoin's short-term focus is on whether it can reclaim the bearish flag pattern. The core of the operation: long positions should wait for a breakthrough at $114,647 + confirmation of flag recovery, while short positions should follow through on a break below $114,467. The test at $112,145 requires strict observation of the actual closing price, and one should not blindly catch the bottom.