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The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July is about to be released, and the market is highly关注. Analysts generally expect the overall CPI year-on-year增长 to reach 2.8%, a slight上升 from last month’s 2.7%, while the core CPI month-on-month增长 is expected to be 0.3%.
An important observation point of this CPI data is the impact of tariffs on prices. Based on historical experience, it usually takes 3 to 5 months for tariffs to fully transmit to the consumer end. The June data has already shown that the prices of certain goods, such as toys and furniture, have risen significantly, with companies passing on about 70% of the costs to consumers. Therefore, the July CPI data will be a key indicator for determining whether the impact of tariffs has entered an acceleration phase. If the CPI rises beyond expectations, it may exacerbate market concerns about 'stagflation', which is the coexistence of weak employment and stubborn inflation in the economy.
However, the release of this CPI data faces a special challenge: the issue of data credibility. Recently, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was replaced, and the newly nominated head is conservative economist E.J. Anthony. This personnel change has raised concerns among some observers that the CPI data may be 'politicized'. If the market suspects that the data has been artificially adjusted, it could impact the $2.1 trillion inflation-protected securities (TIPS) market and potentially drive up inflation expectation premiums.
Overall, this CPI data is not only related to the assessment of the current economic situation but may also affect the market's expectations for future inflation trends. Investors and policymakers will closely monitor the release of this important economic indicator.