Barclays: U.S. employment data unlikely to change Fed's cautious stance; September rate cut expectations may be too optimistic.

[比推] Barclays Bank stated on Friday that although the market bets that the Fed may cut interest rates in September, recent US employment data is unlikely to change Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on the interest rate. The bank expects a cut of only 25 basis points in December this year and believes that investors are overly optimistic about a rate cut in September, misunderstanding the Fed's view on the strength of the labor market.

Powell recently stated that monetary policy is only slightly tight, and the labor market is robust. Even though employment growth slowed in July and the unemployment rate is at 4.2%, Barclays has not seen signs of a change in attitude from hawkish Fed officials. Whether there will be a rate cut in September remains undecided, and the bank will focus on speeches at the Jackson Hole meeting for clues.