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At the upcoming Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech may have a significant impact on the encryption market, and could even determine the fate of the crypto market in 2025.
This annual meeting has always been seen as a barometer of Federal Reserve policy. Looking back, in 2022, Powell announced a tough anti-inflation stance here, leading to a significant drop in global assets, with Bitcoin's price halving in the following six months. In 2013, then-Chairman Bernanke hinted at the introduction of quantitative easing, which triggered a significant rise in gold prices.
This year's economic environment is more complex. On one hand, the unemployment rate has risen to a four-year high, while on the other hand, the inflation rate remains above 3%. The market generally expects a rate cut in September, with a probability as high as 89%. However, political factors are also at play, with some calling for a rate cut and proposing a change of the Federal Reserve Chairman.
Powell's speech may present the following situations:
1. If he maintains a hawkish stance, emphasizing that the inflation issue has not yet been resolved and that interest rate cuts should not be rushed, it could trigger market turmoil, and the price of Bitcoin may experience a sharp decline.
2. If he clearly states that interest rates will be cut in September, the price of Bitcoin may rise significantly, even breaking through $150,000. However, in this case, the market may experience a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, and the subsequent trend carries uncertainty.
It is worth noting that an increasing number of institutional investors are paying attention to the cryptocurrency market. Sovereign wealth funds have allocated 1.2% of their assets to encryption assets, and some governments are even considering purchasing Bitcoin as part of their treasury reserves.
This speech may not only become a turning point for the cryptocurrency market, but it may also mark an important moment when the traditional financial system begins to recognize and embrace encryption assets. Regardless of the outcome, this will undoubtedly be a key milestone in the development of the encryption market.