Analysis of the Development Prospects and Investment Opportunities in the AI Agent Track

Before analyzing the AI Agent track, let's first review the changes that the cryptocurrency industry has undergone during this cycle as a whole:

The Diversification of Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency Market

The performance of Bitcoin in this round has shown a clear divergence from the entire cryptocurrency market. After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it seems that buying Bitcoin and recognizing its value has become the mainstream view, from the political arena to the business world. However, the overall significance of the cryptocurrency industry, especially Ethereum and other altcoins, has not gained recognition from mainstream society and funding.

The reasons for this differentiation are multifaceted:

1. Different asset positioning: Bitcoin is viewed as an alternative asset similar to gold, with its properties of hedging against inflation and preserving asset value widely recognized. In contrast, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are still seen by traditional financial institutions as technology concept stocks lacking mature and sustainable business models.

2. Low risk-reward comparison: Compared to technology giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon, which have stable user bases and product demand, the valuations of cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are not low, but the return elasticity is insufficient, making the risk-reward ratio comparatively low from an asset allocation perspective.

3. Changes in the macro environment: The current interest rate and monetary policy environment remains relatively tight compared to the large-scale stimulus during the last bull market. Coupled with the booming AI industry, this has led to a lack of attractiveness of cryptocurrencies for off-market funds.

Severe Imbalance in the Internal Ecosystem of the Cryptocurrency Industry

Due to the insufficient ability to attract off-exchange funds, the flow of internal funds within the industry has become particularly important. However, there is currently a serious imbalance between supply and demand within the industry:

Supply side: A large number of newly funded projects with high valuations have emerged, but most of these projects have not yet found practical application scenarios and have very few real users. The existence of these projects mainly stems from the excessive funding of cryptocurrency venture capital during the bull market in 2022.

Demand side: Traditional exit channels mainly rely on centralized exchanges, but after the FTX incident, centralized exchanges face strict regulations and have to change their business strategies from expanding user base to pursuing profits. This has led to a decrease in opportunities for new projects to go public and a decline in user participation.

Unique Advantages of AI Agent Compared to Meme Coins

As we all know, the core application scenarios of cryptocurrency are asset trading and issuance. Each bull market requires new models to attract users to participate in asset issuance and trading, thereby generating wealth effects, which in turn triggers leverage in the industry and external capital inflows.

In the current context of generally high valuations and a severe imbalance between supply and demand, Meme coins have become the first breakthrough point. Characterized by no venture capital financing and fair distribution, Meme coins generate a wealth effect through a rapid surge in value with low market capitalization, leading to new asset issuance and trading models.

However, one of the most important characteristics of Meme coins is the lack of practical use. This financial nihilism, while capable of deconstructing venture capital operations, poses significant challenges for most practitioners and institutions to participate.

In contrast, the AI Agent is able to consolidate a broader consensus:

• For fund LPs, a story about investing in AI infrastructure can be told.
• For ordinary users, the on-chain meme and speculation logic can be explained.
• For industry practitioners and venture capitalists, you can explain the logic of investing in AI Agent track projects.

In short, the AI Agent is the greatest common divisor of the cryptocurrency industry in this cycle.

Investment Analysis Framework of AI Agent Project

AI Agent has reshaped the upstream and downstream industry chain and valuation logic of the cryptocurrency industry. By incorporating AI into the underlying technology stack of blockchain, the AI layer has become a parallel technological foundation alongside smart contracts, which is the full-chain Agent layer.

Based on this logic, we can compare the valuations of traditional DeFi projects to estimate the potential value of AI Agent projects:

• The AI Agent framework project may reach about 5% of Ethereum's market value.
• A self-contained framework launch platform could reach the market cap level of Chainlink + Uniswap.
• High-quality AI application projects may reach 1.25%-3% of Ethereum's market value.

How AI Agents Change Industry Ecosystems

The greatest advantage of the AI Agent lies in the innovation of interaction methods:

• Asset Trading: Users can interact directly with the Agent to buy and sell using natural language.
• Project financing: Developers can directly showcase products, and the community can invest directly.
• Token Issuance: AI can automatically complete the token issuance process, and the Agent holds the private key and manages the fund pool.

These changes follow several important standards:

• The project is open source and the application is verifiable.
• The funds are relatively safe, avoiding developers withdrawing the pool.
• Transparency in the financing and token issuance process

The Agent application that can win user trading entry is very likely to reach a valuation level similar to that of exchange platform tokens.

Long-term Vision of AI Agent

From a broader perspective, AI Agents may form a new AI society in the future, creating an economic scale exceeding one trillion dollars. In this AI economy, cryptocurrency will become an important medium of economic circulation.

Development Stages of the AI Agent Industry

According to market capitalization data, the total market value of AI Agent has reached about 60%-75% of mainstream sectors such as DeFi, GameFi, and Layer 2. Judging from market sentiment, the AI Agent sector has just crossed the halfway mark and still has significant growth potential.

Future Development Directions

In addition to the currently popular launch platforms and framework models, the following directions are worth paying attention to:

1. Agent-driven cryptocurrency exchange: Achieving decentralized token listing, asset management, and trading.
2. Agent-driven stablecoins: Automatically adjusting to maintain peg through AI.
3. Application of Agentization: Integrating Agent services into various applications, such as games, NFTs, physical assets, etc.

Overall, the development of the AI Agent track has only just begun, and there is still great potential in the future.