Ethereum falls below $4500 showing bearish signals, RSI breaks 50 warning of a dip to $4180 risk | ETH price prediction

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has started a pullback after failing to break through the resistance at $4750, subsequently losing the support levels at $4650 and $4620. It is currently trading below $4500 and under the 100-hour moving average, with technical indicators issuing bearish warnings: the hourly chart has formed a downtrend line with resistance at $4520; the MACD indicator is showing increased bearish momentum; the RSI has dropped below the neutral level of 50. ETH is now close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the swing trading from $4170 to $4782. If it cannot reclaim the key resistance at $4500, it may continue to dip towards $4240 and even the strong support zone of $4200-4180, and if it loses this, it could potentially fall towards $4050.

Technical Break: Key Support Level Lost, Bears Dominate Short-term Trend

Ethereum's recent trend has weakened, and the key breakdown intensifies the downside risk:

1. Support level breached: The price has clearly fallen below the support areas of $4650 and $4550.
2. Fibonacci level breached: effectively broke below 4170 → 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward swing trading from 4782 dollars.
3. Trendline Resistance: The ETH/USD hourly chart confirms the formation of a descending trendline, with the current resistance level at $4520, reinforcing technical pressure.
4. Moving average pressure: Continuing to operate below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates that short-term bears are in control.

Key Resistance: $4500 as the Bull-Bear Watershed

Ethereum's rebound faces multiple resistance levels.

• Initial resistance level: 4380 USD
• Next resistance level: $4440
• Key resistance: $4500 (psychological barrier and strong resistance near the moving average)
• Breakthrough target: $4550 (near the downward trend line) Bullish scenario: A strong breakout and a stable position above $4500 is needed for hope:

1. Challenge the 4550 USD resistance (requires breaking the descending trend line simultaneously)
2. Attack the $4650 area
3. The short-term target points to 4720 USD

Downside Risk: Focus on the 4240-4200-4180 support level

If the price cannot effectively break through the 4500 USD resistance, it may continue to fall:

• Immediate support: $4240 (current trading area, close to the 76.4% Fibonacci level)
• First strong support: $4200 (key psychological and technical level)
• Core support level: $4180 (recent swing trading low, breaking this will confirm a deep pullback)
• Next support level: 4050 USD
• Key support: 4000 USD (important psychological level)

Technical Indicators Bearish Resonance

• Hourly MACD: Located in the bearish zone (negative territory) and downward momentum is strengthening, reinforcing the bearish signal.
• Hourly RSI: Broke below the neutral level of 50, indicating short-term bearish strength is dominant. Key support level: $4240 → $4200 → $4180 → $4050 Key resistance level: $4380 → $4440 → $4500 → $4550

Conclusion

Ethereum has turned bearish after encountering resistance at a key resistance level. The hourly chart shows a descending trend line forming, the key Fibonacci level has been breached, and the MACD/RSI indicators have simultaneously issued bearish signals, all pointing to further downside risk for the price. If the bulls want to reverse the downturn, they must strongly reclaim the $4500 level and break through the $4550 descending trend line resistance. Conversely, if the immediate support at $4240 is lost, it may quickly dip to the strong support area of $4200-4180, which will become a key defense line determining the short-term trend. Traders should closely monitor the battle between the $4500 resistance and the $4180 support and develop risk management strategies accordingly.