Bitcoin Faces Adjustment Risks – Is ETH Really Safe?

According to a new report from CryptoQuant, analyst XWIN Research Japan stated that on-chain data is showing signs of weakness in BTC's price action, which is completely contrary to the positive picture of ETH. Currently, the amount of BTC reserves on exchanges remains around 2.53 million BTC, showing almost no downward trend despite significant price fluctuations. In the past week, BTC has decreased by 5.4%, from 123,000 USD to 113,000 USD. History shows that when the reserves on the exchange decrease, the short-term selling pressure also decreases as investors move BTC to cold wallets for long-term holding. However, the fact that the current reserves are still "stagnant" reflects that the available supply of BTC for sale is still quite large – a warning signal of adjustment risks in the short term. Contrarian to BTC, ETH is witnessing a continuous and strong outflow of funds from exchanges. Notably, there were outflows exceeding 300,000 ETH at the end of July and mid-August. According to XWIN Research Japan, this indicates that the amount of ETH is being moved to cold storage, staking, or institutional custody – contributing to the tightening of the circulating supply in the market. The price of ETH is currently trading in the range of 4,150 – 4,400 USD, aligning with the trend of capital withdrawal and reinforcing the argument for the potential occurrence of a "supply shock" ( in the near future. BTC – High Liquidity, ETH – Strong Organizational Demand In addition to the reserve factor, many other indicators also highlight the deep downside risk of BTC and the increasing institutional interest in ETH. The famous analyst Xanrox even predicts that BTC could drop to 60,000 USD, which corresponds to a nearly 50% decrease from the current price – a shocking scenario if it occurs. On the contrary, Ethereum "whales" continue to expand their buying positions, with a notable recent transaction being a large wallet opening a long position of 300 million USD ETH on-chain. The relative strength of ETH compared to BTC is clearly improving. Technically, ETH is also maintaining a positive trend with the potential to reach the resistance level of 4,788 USD in the short term. Meanwhile, at the time of this writing, BTC is trading at 112,283 USD, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours. Conclusion The contrarian behavior in the price actions and on-chain data of BTC and ETH indicates that capital flows in the market are gradually shifting. BTC may face short-term adjustment pressure as liquidity remains high, while ETH benefits from the accumulation demand of institutions and the tightening supply trend. Given the current situation, ETH is emerging as a more attractive option compared to BTC during this period, especially for investors looking for strong growth potential in the upcoming cycle.