Why are more and more people choosing to leave the encryption industry recently?

The ebb and flow of the market reveals the true nature of the participants. Recently, the sluggish state of the cryptocurrency market has led to the exit of some practitioners, and this phenomenon has become a reflection of the current state of the industry.

The reasons for these people's departure can be roughly summarized as follows:

First, the ongoing market downturn has forced some individuals to temporarily leave the industry in search of new development opportunities. Second, the growth model of the Web3 industry over the past couple of years has left some value creators feeling disappointed as they have not been able to see real value growth. Additionally, the rise of artificial intelligence has also captured the attention of some people, who believe that Web3 is outdated and are instead chasing new blue ocean markets.

Nevertheless, these individual phenomena do not represent the trends of the entire industry. Most market participants still choose to wait and see or continue to invest in construction, as this industry, which has developed for more than a decade, has experienced similar dilemmas multiple times.

Although the departure of some influential figures may affect the mindset of certain individuals, this is precisely a critical moment to test the builders of the industry. Setting aside the superficial restlessness, we need to pay attention to the changes occurring in the industry and the aspects that have not yet changed. The following is a brief analysis from three perspectives:

The development stages of the Web3 industry

According to a research report from a financial services company, only 4% of the global population holds Bitcoin, with the highest holding rate in the United States at about 14%. In terms of development stage, the current Bitcoin adoption rate is comparable to the internet in 1990 or mobile social in 2005.

These data indicate that the adoption rate of digital assets, represented by Bitcoin, is still in the early stages and has not yet reached what is known as the red ocean market level. From the perspective of industry influence, some traditional financial giants have only just entered the field, which also indirectly reflects the potential of the industry.

From a logical and data analysis perspective, if digital assets are the future direction of development, or if Web3 is the intersection of the internet and artificial intelligence, then this competition is likely only halfway through, and there is still a long way to go.

The narrative evolution of the Web3 market

In the past year, the explosion of the MEME project has attracted widespread attention and has also led many newcomers to the industry to experience a cleansing, even resulting in a loss of confidence in the industry. However, MEME is evolving, and after the bubble, it needs a new revival growth, which may bring value to the industry.

We should not only focus on superficial hot changes; builders are still working hard, and valuable projects are still seeking breakthroughs. Looking at the changes in the number of active developers over the past year, although there has been a decline, it remains at a relatively high level.

Although the market currently seems relatively quiet, lacking a major narrative like the groundbreaking DeFi of the previous cycle, a review of history shows that the development and changes of any phenomenon follow this pattern. Even in the Web3 industry of 2018, the situation at that time might have been worse than it is now, but this did not hinder the subsequent explosion. We need time and patience to wait for the process of quantitative change to qualitative change.

Market Trend Outlook

Regarding the price issue, most people believe that this cycle is significantly different from previous ones and lacks similarity, which is why many predictions have become mere talk. However, if the concept of cycles is still valid, we are likely still within this current cycle, just without the past frenzy of widespread increases.

Recently, the global financial market has experienced extreme conditions, with the US stock market plummeting and resulting in a huge evaporation of market value, which has also led to fluctuations in the entire encryption currency market. In this situation, whether the encryption currency market can remain unaffected is a question worth pondering.

The ancient economist Fan Li had a famous saying: "When prices rise to the extreme, they will fall; when prices drop to the extreme, they will rise; things that are precious are viewed like dirt, while worthless things are valued like jewels." Perhaps we are currently in a subtle moment of "seeing everything as dirt."

Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 each in the future? Seven years ago, predicting that Bitcoin would reach 1 million yuan each sounded like a joke, but now it doesn't seem far off. We need to stay rational in the face of reality, but we should remain cautiously optimistic when looking to the future. In this industry, continuous construction and progress are key.