Evaluating the Future of the SOL ETF

With the inauguration of pro-cryptocurrency US President Trump and the departure of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the cryptocurrency regulatory environment has significantly shifted towards a more relaxed stance. The new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has announced a new vision for cryptocurrency, stating that a more lenient cryptocurrency regulatory policy will be adopted, further strengthening market sentiment on Solana Expected ETF. Currently, four institutions including Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Funds have submitted SOL ETF applications, with Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicting a 75% approval probability.

Previously, the SEC had a conservative attitude towards the approval of ETFs other than BTC and ETH, but Solana has gradually built a compliance foundation with “commodity attributes” by increasing decentralization, improving the validation node network, and legal precedents support. In addition, Rob Marrocco, Vice President of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, pointed out that if Solana futures ETF is launched first and accumulates trading volume, it will accelerate the landing process of spot ETFs.

SOL ETF Market Potential: Fund Inflows and Price Predictions

If the SOL ETF is approved, its market influence may surpass the Meme coin track and become the first institutional product targeting high-performance public chains. According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart’s calculations, the total demand for SOL ETF could reach billions of dollars. Technical analysis shows, SOL price Possibly breaking out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, with a target price of up to $1,000.

Historical experience shows that ETFs have a significant catalytic effect on the prices of crypto assets. For example, the Bitcoin ETF attracted over $40 billion in funds in 2024, driving the price to exceed $100,000. If the SOL ETF follows this path, even attracting only 10% of the funds of the Bitcoin ETF, its market value could increase by $460.2 billion, corresponding to a SOL price of $885.

Competitive Advantage: Technological Ecosystem and Institutional Layout

Solana’s core advantage lies in its high throughput (65,000 transactions per second) and low fees (approximately $0.00025 per transaction), which positions it as a leader in the DeFi, NFT, and GameFi sectors. In early 2025, the decentralized exchange (DEX) volume of Solana’s ecosystem exceeded $60 million per day, surpassing Ethereum’s $38 million, demonstrating the expansion of its real-world applications.

On the institutional front, Grayscale has launched the Solana Trust Fund (managing assets of 70 million US dollars), while institutions like VanEck are actively exploring incorporating SOL into multi-asset ETF portfolios. Polymarket data shows that the probability of approval for SOL ETF (84%) far exceeds that of competitors like XRP (65%) and Cardano (50%), reflecting market recognition of Solana.

Risks and Challenges: Regulatory Ambiguity and Market Volatility

Despite the optimistic outlook, SOL ETF still faces multiple risks:

• Securities identification dispute: The SEC once classified SOL as an ‘unregistered security’ in 2023, despite VanEck’s claim of its commodity nature, but the regulatory classification is still not finally clear;
• Liquidity dependence: The top 100 addresses of SOL still control 27% of the circulation. If the ETF fails to effectively diversify the coin holding structure, it may raise questions about manipulative nature.
• Technical Stability: Although Solana has resolved the frequent downtime issue, its Proof of History (PoH) mechanism still needs to withstand long-term tests in high-concurrency scenarios.

In addition, the annual inflation rate of SOL (3.8%) contrasts with Bitcoin’s deflationary model, and if ETF fund inflows fall short of expectations, it may exacerbate price volatility.

SOL ETF Future Outlook

If the SOL ETF is successfully launched, it will mark the official entry of public chain assets into the mainstream financial system. Unlike the narrative of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold,’ Solana’s positioning leans more towards ‘high-speed financial infrastructure,’ which may attract institutional investors focusing on technical practicality. At the same time, this may pave the way for compliance for competitors such as Avalanche, Polygon, etc., shifting the public chain competition from ‘technical race’ to ‘ecosystem and compliance dual-dimensional competition’.

By 2025, the approval of the SOL ETF is not only a touchstone for regulatory attitudes but also a key turning point in the revaluation of public chain value. In the short term, if it is approved and implemented, the SOL price may hit the historical high of $300; in the long term, it is necessary to observe the landing of its ecological applications and the decentralization process. For investors, it is important to find a balance between regulatory trends, technological upgrades, and market sentiment, and to grasp Web3 The historic dividend of integrating with traditional finance.