July 2025 Snapshot 🧵
Global liquidity, derivative risk, network profitability, and an update on altcoins.
1) Global Liquidity (GL)
- 88% correlation with the BTC price.
- Past cycles: 2 years of liquidity down, 2 years up; now in a 3‑year contraction (2022–24), hinting at a longer bull cycle.
- Normally: 1% GL rise → 4–7% BTC. July GL is at an all‑time high (now); sensitivity spikes to 20–30% per 1% GL increase, signaling potential for a parabolic move.
2) Derivative Risk (DR)
- Tracks leverage and positioning to spot market extremes
- Currently low, suggesting leverage is reset and market h